The FED’s “protect the market at all costs” attitude minimizes the risk of a severe bear market but increases the risk for an inflationary environment. Trade deficits and low productivity are not good signs for the long-term, no matter the positive data from the labor market. Until the focus shifts from central banks to real… Read More »The Important Insights From The FOMC Minutes No One Is Talking About
Risks are cumulating and getting bigger. U.S. GDP growth is slower than expected, earnings and oil prices continue to decline. Japan is unable to grow while BREXIT risks are still unfolding. Introduction It is difficult to find good news lately. The last really good news was the June jobs report when 287,000 jobs were added.… Read More »Euphoria & Denial Point to the Last Days of the Bull Market
The first hard data after the BREXIT won’t be available until October, but property funds are already frozen. The decline of the pound will lower UK GDP and will spill over into Europe. Italian banks are in trouble as 25% of GDP are nonperforming loans. Introduction As two weeks have passed since the BREXIT debacle,… Read More »Could the Economic Climate in Europe Be Contagious?
This article provides a list of companies whose earnings will be affected by the BREXIT. The dollar is stable thus we should not expect strong global currency effects. The probability of U.S. recession has hit an 8-year high which should be detrimental for earnings in next two years. Introduction In the long term, stock returns are… Read More »Prepare for Earnings Season: Prices, BREXIT, GDP & Trends
Economic data is strong and positive. Neither jobless claims nor consumer spending show signs of weakness. The issues remain in valuations, optimism and low yields. Introduction In the post-BREXIT world, there is a lot of speculation but no one knows what will happen. This article is going to provide a general outlook on how the… Read More »Major Indicators Are All Positive, But Is It Time To Get Fearful?
The risks of a slowdown are higher than the upside. Fundamental trends are negative in advanced economies while emerging markets show higher growth rates and are cheaper. It is important to create a diversified portfolio with uncorrelated assets. Introduction In an environment where it seems maximum potential for the U.S. economy has been reached, the… Read More »How to Prepare Your Portfolio For The Next Recession or Stock Market Crash
Global GDP growth rates are stalling even with increased monetary stimulus. There are several potential recession triggers. It is important to assess the risks a portfolio runs as no one can know when a recession will come, but eventually it will as it always has. Introduction The main FED goals are sustainable economic growth and… Read More »Is Global Recession On Its Way? Brexit May Be A Warning Sign…